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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
NothingToSay · 6 games
33%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 448 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
595 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 448 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
506 picks · 561 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
391 picks · 224 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 385 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
363 picks · 529 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 560 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
LGD Gaming 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
48% · 101 game44% · 149 games
BloodseekerSkiter
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
51% · 422 games50% · 88 games
Centaur WarrunnerNine
Centaur Warrunner
Beastmaster
BeastmasterELeVeN
48% · 303 games54% · 305 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
46% · 477 games54% · 239 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Chen
Cheny`
56% · 141 game47% · 663 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed30:12
LGD Gaming 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackshiro
53% · 119 games55% · 117 games
TimbersawNine
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterELeVeN
52% · 360 games41% · 115 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Tusk
TuskNothingToSay
49% · 508 games52% · 166 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Warlock
Warlocky`
55% · 107 games43% · 316 games
RubickSneyking
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
54% · 168 games48% · 548 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2