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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 15 games
27%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 14 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
22%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 448 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
595 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 448 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
506 picks · 561 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
391 picks · 224 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 385 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
363 picks · 529 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 560 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:47
EHOME 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNight
52% · 255 games46% · 167 games
DawnbreakerPakazs
Dawnbreaker
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenmks-
64% · 113 games50% · 179 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
48% · 72 games45% · 264 games
Ember SpiritChris Luck
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorLwwnb
52% · 166 games49% · 223 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Tusk
TuskCatYou
50% · 401 game43% · 174 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed58:54
EHOME 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by EHOME in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetmks-
56% · 219 games45% · 154 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNight
59% · 151 game45% · 192 games
DoomPakazs
Doom
Marci
Marcixiaoyu154
51% · 288 games45% · 109 games
Void SpiritChris Luck
Void Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorLwwnb
54% · 152 games47% · 464 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Tusk
TuskCatYou
53% · 368 games47% · 259 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2