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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
86%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 11 games
73%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
710 picks · 449 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
595 picks · 552 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 451 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
506 picks · 562 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 223 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 385 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
362 picks · 526 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 52%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
Shopify Rebellion 74%HellRaisers 26%
The model gave 74% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:59.
Game 2prediction correct28:22
Shopify Rebellion 74%HellRaisers 26%
The model gave 74% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 74%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2