DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Tusk
swedenstrong · 32 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 26 games
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 24 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 17 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 46 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 39 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 36 games
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
644 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 456 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 416 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
427 picks · 411 bans
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1107 bans
Puck
394 picks · 852 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:26
1w Team 38%BETBOOM TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomv1olent-
TidehunterMieRo
Pangolierмистер мораль
Void SpiritgpK~
PuckSquad1x
AlchemistKiritych
Rubickswedenstrong
LichKataomi
WarlockRein
WindrangerSave-
Game 2prediction correct9:23
1w Team 38%BETBOOM TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Queen of PaingpK~
Underlordмистер мораль
BeastmasterMieRo
Ember SpiritSquad1x
AlchemistKiritych
ChenRein
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
MiranaSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 74%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2