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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Breeki Cheekiloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Breeki Cheeki

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnus
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
100%
Luna
Luna
DarkLord^ · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
DarkLord^ · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
asdekor_r · 2 games
0%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
644 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 456 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 416 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
427 picks · 411 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1107 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 852 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 628 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:36
Breeki Cheeki 41%Power Rangers 59%
The model gave 59% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 23:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painспортик
46% · 262 games58% · 70 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackDarkLord^
53% · 227 games44% · 244 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Timbersaw
TimbersawChodΣX
49% · 225 games40% · 351 game
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Largo
LargoOneJey
60% · 101 game59% · 27 games
IoImmersion
Io
Bane
Baneasdekor_r
56% · 185 games48% · 308 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct31:30
Breeki Cheeki 42%Power Rangers 58%
The model gave 58% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverDarkLord^
48% · 151 game54% · 89 games
Vipernicky`cool
Viper
Sniper
Sniperспортик
45% · 86 games50% · 182 games
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
49% · 174 games55% · 150 games
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarChodΣX
49% · 294 games54% · 7 games
Winter WyvernHduo
Winter Wyvern
Magnus
MagnusOneJey
49% · 58 games49% · 335 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 67%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2