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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 13 games
92%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 15 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 11 games
64%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
80%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
dyrachyo · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
707 picks · 447 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
597 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 450 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
505 picks · 558 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 385 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
392 picks · 220 bans
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
360 picks · 524 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 557 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:26
Tundra Esports 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
49% · 104 games51% · 198 games
Linadyrachyo
Lina
Sniper
SniperNine
43% · 96 games49% · 196 games
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
47% · 214 games51% · 187 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
54% · 247 games49% · 206 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSneyking
51% · 268 games55% · 142 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed25:24
Tundra Esports 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSkiter
47% · 103 games53% · 169 games
Linadyrachyo
Lina
Broodmother
Broodmother33
49% · 114 games52% · 145 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNine
52% · 153 games55% · 83 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
40% · 308 games49% · 149 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSneyking
54% · 104 games52% · 236 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2