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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 14 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
13%

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 20 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
706 picks · 447 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
596 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 449 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
505 picks · 558 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 384 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
391 picks · 220 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 555 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
359 picks · 523 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:37
EHOME 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetmks-
49% · 179 games50% · 343 games
LinaPalos
Lina
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNight
56% · 191 game54% · 260 games
PuckBob
Puck
Magnus
Magnusxiaoyu154
52% · 79 games37% · 201 game
DoomTino-
Doom
Rubick
RubickCatYou
52% · 354 games49% · 296 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Tusk
TuskLwwnb
53% · 297 games
Game 2prediction missed40:21
EHOME 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by EHOME in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenmks-
63% · 77 games53% · 121 game
UrsaPalos
Ursa
Marci
Marcixiaoyu154
51% · 261 game44% · 257 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordNight
50% · 71 game52% · 141 game
VisageTino-
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireCatYou
45% · 243 games46% · 235 games
DawnbreakerShanks
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorLwwnb
48% · 102 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2