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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 24 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
Mira · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Mira · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 13 games
85%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Larl · 13 games
54%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 7 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
703 picks · 446 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
595 picks · 548 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 448 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
503 picks · 558 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 384 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
390 picks · 220 bans
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
359 picks · 521 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
358 picks · 553 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Team Spirit 56%Evil Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYatoro
55% · 114 games58% · 123 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLarl
47% · 181 game54% · 88 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
45% · 98 games48% · 167 games
SnapfireChris Luck
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
44% · 249 games50% · 230 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Riki
RikiMira
52% · 102 games52% · 136 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Team Spirit 53%Evil Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
50% · 103 games40% · 141 game
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLarl
45% · 283 games50% · 155 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
51% · 175 games54% · 226 games
LeshracWisper
Leshrac
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
54% · 185 games54% · 281 game
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
Riki
RikiMira
50% · 78 games51% · 21 game
LionMatthew
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2