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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GLYPHloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
REKONIXwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GLYPH

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 5 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
zeal · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Emo · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
zeal · 3 games
67%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
17%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Varizh · 10 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 9 games
67%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 455 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 416 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 407 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1104 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 844 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% GLYPH
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% GLYPH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
GLYPH 55%REKONIX 45%
The model gave 55% on GLYPH — the game was taken by GLYPH in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidEmo
57% · 3 games54% · 110 games
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
Monkey King
Kez
KezJaCkky
44% · 76 games51% · 47 games
SlarkTraVins
Slark
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzeal
48% · 155 games54% · 119 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Io
IoNARMAN
34% · 29 games45% · 28 games
Grimstrokedalul
Grimstroke
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
53% · 206 games55% · 165 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed9:27
GLYPH 55%REKONIX 45%
The model gave 55% on GLYPH — the game was taken by REKONIX in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
46% · 137 games42% · 115 games
LunaTraVins
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
52% · 236 games54% · 402 games
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzeal
44% · 190 games54% · 311 games
SlardarFbz
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixNARMAN
53% · 174 games46% · 30 games
Iodalul
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
52% · 191 game56% · 70 games
Ogre MagiVarizh
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed22:27
GLYPH 57%REKONIX 43%
The model gave 57% on GLYPH — the game was taken by REKONIX in 47:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
47% · 360 games54% · 248 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJaCkky
44% · 408 games43% · 345 games
TinyTraVins
Tiny
Largo
Largozeal
62% · 156 games52% · 331 game
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Pugna
PugnaNARMAN
51% · 173 games54% · 94 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Lion
LionJhocam
46% · 115 games48% · 194 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteGLYPH · 58%
Series resultREKONIX 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3