The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Fly · 10 games
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 9 games
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 9 games
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
Tusksignature
Abed · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
700 picks · 445 bans
Tusk
594 picks · 548 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 446 bans
Treant Protector
500 picks · 556 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 218 bans
Nature's Prophet
358 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 549 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 54%
Hero pool strength62% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
Shopify Rebellion 62%Entity 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Entity in 51:08.
Game 2prediction correct22:8
Shopify Rebellion 62%Entity 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2