The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
APAntarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 22 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
Enigmasignature
zai · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 13 games
Antarctic Penguins
Tinysignature
Kaka · 12 games
Rubicksignature
FelixCiaoBa · 11 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Pucksignature
Somnus · 8 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
XCJ · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Marcisignature
Kaka · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
700 picks · 443 bans
Tusk
594 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 446 bans
Treant Protector
498 picks · 556 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 218 bans
Nature's Prophet
357 picks · 517 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:10
Team Liquid 74%Antarctic Penguins 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNisha
LinaeGo
SnipermiCKe
PuckAlaCrity
Death Prophetzai
RikiFelixCiaoBa
TinyBoxi
DisruptorXCJ
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct37:9
Team Liquid 76%Antarctic Penguins 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Monkey KingeGo
Doomzai
InvokerAlaCrity
Ember SpiritNisha
Earth SpiritFelixCiaoBa
HoodwinkBoxi
JakiroXCJ
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 90%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2