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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 7 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Ari · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Ari · 6 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Ari · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 6 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
88%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 13 games
92%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 439 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
588 picks · 546 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
495 picks · 556 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 215 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 546 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
351 picks · 515 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 65%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:37
TSM 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
51% · 164 games50% · 68 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
46% · 291 game55% · 186 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterkasane
42% · 109 games57% · 203 games
BatriderNine
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
45% · 129 games52% · 250 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Riki
RikiAri
51% · 75 games52% · 61 game
EarthshakerSaksa
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct29:31
TSM 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
57% · 230 games45% · 68 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetkasane
49% · 250 games48% · 460 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Marci
MarciTimado
53% · 348 games50% · 401 game
TuskNine
Tusk
Rubick
RubickAri
48% · 482 games53% · 262 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Io
IoWhitemon
52% · 144 games43% · 263 games
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 78%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2