The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
y` · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
y` · 6 games
Disruptor
y` · 5 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 24 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 17 games
Tiny
Mira · 17 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Mira · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
588 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
495 picks · 556 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 215 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 546 bans
Nature's Prophet
351 picks · 515 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 74%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
LGD Gaming 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectreshiro
Nature's ProphetCollapse
TimbersawELeVeN
MorphlingYatoro
PangolierNothingToSay
BatriderLarl
DisruptorpLAnet
ClockwerkMiposhka
Enchantressy`
RikiMira
Game 2prediction missed47:22
LGD Gaming 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenshiro
MorphlingYatoro
Death ProphetELeVeN
LeshracLarl
TuskNothingToSay
SnapfireCollapse
PhoenixpLAnet
ClockwerkMira
Disruptory`
LichMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2