The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionAPAntarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Antarctic Penguins
Tinysignature
Kaka · 12 games
Rubicksignature
FelixCiaoBa · 10 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Pucksignature
Somnus · 8 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
AlaCrity · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
XCJ · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
589 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 447 bans
Treant Protector
496 picks · 553 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
Snapfire
388 picks · 216 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 544 bans
Nature's Prophet
350 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:48
Antarctic Penguins 23%Entity 77%
The model gave 77% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 29:23.
Game 2prediction correct10:25
Antarctic Penguins 23%Entity 77%
The model gave 77% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 23:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 77%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2