The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 17 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 12 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
589 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 447 bans
Treant Protector
496 picks · 553 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
Snapfire
388 picks · 216 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 544 bans
Nature's Prophet
350 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:9
HellRaisers 55%Geek Fam 45%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 28:58.
Game 2prediction missed12:26
HellRaisers 55%Geek Fam 45%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 55%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2