The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
y` · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
y` · 6 games
Disruptor
y` · 5 games
TSM
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
Mirana
MoonMeander · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
Marcisignature
Timado · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
bryle- · 6 games
Rikisignature
Ari · 6 games
Rubick
MoonMeander · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
692 picks · 436 bans
Tusk
588 picks · 541 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 446 bans
Treant Protector
494 picks · 551 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 381 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 214 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 542 bans
Nature's Prophet
349 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:23
LGD Gaming 59%TSM 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by TSM in 32:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidshiro
Shadow Fiendbryle-
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Lycankasane
BroodmotherELeVeN
MarciTimado
HoodwinkpLAnet
RubickAri
Baney`
IoWhitemon
Game 2prediction missed32:45
LGD Gaming 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by TSM in 54:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursashiro
LinaTimado
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Primal Beastbryle-
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Venomancerkasane
Phoenixy`
SnapfireAri
RubickpLAnet
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 68%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2