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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 17 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
Mira · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 13 games
85%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Mira · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 12 games
92%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
80%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
dyrachyo · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 435 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
586 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
494 picks · 549 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 213 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
350 picks · 541 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
347 picks · 505 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total66% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
Team Spirit 59%Gaimin Gladiators 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYatoro
42% · 126 games51% · 51 game
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
54% · 162 games52% · 173 games
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
51% · 73 games55% · 231 game
PuckQuinn
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
55% · 120 games45% · 227 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickMira
43% · 377 games52% · 176 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Game 2prediction missed20:42
Team Spirit 58%Gaimin Gladiators 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCollapse
48% · 201 game52% · 79 games
Naga Sirendyrachyo
Naga Siren
Marci
MarciYatoro
45% · 273 games53% · 218 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Zeus
ZeusLarl
46% · 130 games57% · 56 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMira
60% · 46 games45% · 271 game
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
49% · 125 games51% · 151 game
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 66%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2