The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 21 game
Enigmasignature
zai · 15 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 15 games
Tiny
Boxi · 15 games
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
688 picks · 434 bans
Tusk
586 picks · 541 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
492 picks · 549 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
350 picks · 540 bans
Nature's Prophet
346 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:3
Team Liquid 84%HellRaisers 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:24.
Game 2prediction correct42:18
Team Liquid 84%HellRaisers 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 84%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2