The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 16 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 12 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
684 picks · 434 bans
Tusk
586 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
490 picks · 548 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 537 bans
Nature's Prophet
345 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:29
Geek Fam 29%Entity 71%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 44:07.
Game 2prediction correct12:22
Geek Fam 29%Entity 71%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 1:02:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 71%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2