The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tiny
BoBoKa · 19 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 8 games
Leshracsignature
Ori · 8 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
683 picks · 434 bans
Tusk
585 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
488 picks · 548 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 382 bans
Snapfire
383 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 537 bans
Nature's Prophet
345 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:31
Team Aster 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by beastcoast in 56:38.
Game 2prediction correct40:14
Team Aster 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2