The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 17 games
Tiny
Mira · 17 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Mira · 13 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 11 games
TSM
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
Marcisignature
Whitemon · 6 games
Miranasignature
MoonMeander · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
bryle- · 6 games
Rubick
MoonMeander · 6 games
Snapfire
Ari · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
681 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 539 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 381 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 533 bans
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 82%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:8
Team Spirit 63%TSM 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 55:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerYatoro
Drow RangerTimado
LeshracLarl
Keeper of the Lightbryle-
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Enigmakasane
HoodwinkMira
RikiAri
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
UndyingWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Team Spirit 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYatoro
LinaTimado
PangolierLarl
Enigmakasane
MagnusCollapse
Primal Beastbryle-
EnchantressMiposhka
MiranaWhitemon
RubickMira
RikiAri
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2