?
arrow_backBack to match
The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 7 games
86%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
y` · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 5 games
80%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 8 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 7 games
86%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
681 picks · 430 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
583 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 442 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 381 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 210 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 533 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 495 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:19
LGD Gaming 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
51% · 127 games52% · 250 games
LinaPakazs
Lina
Lycan
LycanELeVeN
46% · 102 games60% · 241 game
LeshracChris Luck
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
49% · 501 game48% · 218 games
BroodmotherWisper
Broodmother
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
45% · 202 games49% · 55 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
45% · 197 games52% · 365 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed29:9
LGD Gaming 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
49% · 179 games55% · 257 games
Nature's ProphetPakazs
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
48% · 374 games52% · 226 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetELeVeN
49% · 372 games52% · 64 games
VenomancerWisper
Venomancer
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
47% · 240 games50% · 760 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkpLAnet
49% · 349 games50% · 207 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2