The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 15 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
Hyde · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 9 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 13 games
Rubick
tOfu · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 11 games
Hoodwink
tOfu · 10 games
Pudgesignature
dyrachyo · 10 games
Silencersignature
tOfu · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
681 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 539 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 381 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 533 bans
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
Talon Esports 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 52:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King23savage
LeshracQuinn
Naga SirenJabz
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
BatriderMikoto
Centaur WarrunnerAce
MiranaQ
SnapfiretOfu
UndyingOli
IoSeleri
Game 2prediction correct73:40
Talon Esports 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:06:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMikoto
Linadyrachyo
Templar Assassin23savage
Storm SpiritQuinn
BatriderJabz
TidehunterAce
Elder TitanOli
Shadow DemontOfu
TuskQ
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2