Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
D2 Hustlersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
680 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 539 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 381 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 532 bans
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Alliance 62%D2 Hustlers 38%
The model gave 62% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 39:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 62%
Series resultAlliance 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1