Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Monaspawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
680 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 541 bans
Tiny
557 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 209 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 534 bans
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:28
Alliance 60%Monaspa 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Monaspa in 45:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 60%
Series resultMonaspa 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1