Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Lavawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Sniperoften banned
payk · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Abaddon
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
680 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
486 picks · 544 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
383 picks · 209 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 532 bans
Nature's Prophet
343 picks · 493 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dreamers 37%Lava 63%
The model gave 63% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 63%
Series resultLava 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1