European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Tusk
Fernans · 22 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 19 games
Puckoften banned
niche · 19 games
Tiny
Jing · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 16 games
Ilbirs eSports
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
Tiny
xsvampire · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
641 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
520 picks · 454 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
420 picks · 401 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1099 bans
Puck
391 picks · 839 bans
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Inner Circle 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Game 2prediction correct
Inner Circle 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Game 3prediction correct
Inner Circle 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 62%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3