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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Power Rangerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
prblms · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
prblms · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 20 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
641 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 454 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
493 picks · 413 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
420 picks · 401 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1099 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 839 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 59%
Hero pool strength62% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:27
MODUS 26%Power Rangers 74%
The model gave 74% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by MODUS in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebottega
48% · 237 games48% · 57 games
AlchemistTA2000
Alchemist
Puck
PuckMirele
56% · 294 games51% · 341 game
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Pangolier
Pangolierelmo^^
48% · 258 games48% · 405 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
52% · 239 games44% · 254 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Venomancer
Venomancerprblms
55% · 38 games64% · 9 games
Winter WyvernHduo
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct10:27
MODUS 25%Power Rangers 75%
The model gave 75% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbottega
45% · 332 games64% · 61 game
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
46% · 423 games49% · 288 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Largo
Largoelmo^^
59% · 113 games54% · 361 game
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Ember Spirit
Silencer
Silencerprblms
46% · 127 games49% · 196 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
43% · 206 games51% · 295 games
HoodwinkImmersion
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct13:38
MODUS 25%Power Rangers 75%
The model gave 75% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackelmo^^
52% · 258 games49% · 345 games
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Muerta
Muertabottega
45% · 169 games58% · 84 games
Huskarnicky`cool
Huskar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirele
46% · 219 games47% · 255 games
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Underlord
Lion
Lionmrls
50% · 88 games55% · 194 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Tusk
Tuskprblms
48% · 487 games52% · 343 games
HoodwinkImmersion
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 89%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3