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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 25 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 13 games
77%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 10 games
90%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 9 games
89%
Silencer
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
89%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
674 picks · 430 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
580 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 442 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
484 picks · 540 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
383 picks · 208 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 529 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
342 picks · 490 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 80%
Hero pool strength66% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:31
PuckChamp 39%Hydra 61%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:24.
Game 2prediction correct10:19
PuckChamp 39%Hydra 61%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 20:52.
Game 3prediction correct28:14
PuckChamp 39%Hydra 61%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 61%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3