Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Flowloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
XERXIAwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Flow
Rubick
czy · 6 games
Tiny
Mercury · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mercury · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Unknown- · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
Lion
czy · 4 games
Mirana
czy · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Unknown- · 4 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
668 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
578 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
557 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
480 picks · 538 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 206 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 526 bans
Nature's Prophet
341 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 34%
Hero pool strength55% XERXIA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Team Flow 39%XERXIA 61%
The model gave 61% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 34:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 61%
Series resultXERXIA 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1