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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Flowloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 20 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 12 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%

Team Flow

Rubick
Rubick
czy · 6 games
17%
Tiny
Tiny
Mercury · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Unknown- · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
czy · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
668 picks · 428 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
578 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
557 picks · 441 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
479 picks · 538 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
387 picks · 386 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 206 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 525 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 221 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:7
Army Geniuses 69%Team Flow 31%
The model gave 69% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerinYourdreaM
51% · 113 games54% · 84 games
LifestealerUnknown-
Lifestealer
Naga Siren
Naga Sirendb-
49% · 129 games50% · 306 games
PangolierMercury
Pangolier
Zeus
ZeusYowe
46% · 96 games57% · 59 games
Dark SeerNevermine
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
50% · 256 games52% · 39 games
Lionczy
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVarizh
51% · 232 games43% · 338 games
TuskTrazaM
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Army Geniuses 68%Team Flow 32%
The model gave 68% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 21:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinainYourdreaM
50% · 253 games56% · 160 games
MorphlingUnknown-
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderYowe
50% · 258 games52% · 312 games
PangolierMercury
Pangolier
Pugna
Pugnadb-
45% · 103 games48% · 311 games
Death ProphetNevermine
Death Prophet
Doom
DoomJhocam
41% · 223 games55% · 31 game
OracleTrazaM
Oracle
Undying
UndyingVarizh
53% · 271 game50% · 294 games
Tuskczy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 79%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2