Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
660 picks · 424 bans
Tusk
572 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
555 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
473 picks · 538 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 207 bans
Death Prophet
343 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 220 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
YNT 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 40:27.
Game 2prediction correct41:27
YNT 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 50:32.
Game 3prediction correct34:9
YNT 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 30:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 71%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3