DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportsloss 1:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GLYPHwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
Hoodwink
ace12 · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Dark Willow
ace12 · 1 game
Doomoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Muerta
Dreamocel · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
seimei · 1 game
GLYPH
Ember Spiritoften banned
Emo · 4 games
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
Kezoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Largooften banned
zeal · 3 games
Phoenix
NARMAN · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
519 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
417 picks · 397 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1094 bans
Puck
391 picks · 836 bans
Mars
384 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% GLYPH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% GLYPH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:30
Carstensz Esports 25%GLYPH 75%
The model gave 75% on GLYPH — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDreamocel
InvokerEmo
Slardarseimei
UrsaJaCkky
Shadow Demonace12
Pangolierzeal
49% · 154 games
PhoenixNARMAN
48% · 62 games
LionJhocam
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Carstensz Esports 24%GLYPH 76%
The model gave 76% on GLYPH — the game was taken by GLYPH in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverDreamocel
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Slardarseimei
Tidehunterzeal
Skywrath Mageace12
Storm SpiritEmo
48% · 106 games
PhoenixNARMAN
55% · 154 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Game 3prediction correct16:20
Carstensz Esports 25%GLYPH 75%
The model gave 75% on GLYPH — the game was taken by GLYPH in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaDreamocel
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Slardarseimei
Lone DruidEmo
Rubickace12
Tidehunterzeal
48% · 273 games
TuskJhocam
51% · 148 games
PhoenixNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteGLYPH · 89%
Series resultGLYPH 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3