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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Limitwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
25%
Marci
Marcioften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
天命 · 2 games
50%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 16 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 6 games
100%
Lich
Lichsignature
Victoria · 6 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Xm · 6 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
655 picks · 423 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
569 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 439 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
468 picks · 535 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 386 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
336 picks · 514 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 219 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 68%
Hero pool strength64% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
Team Disillusion 33%Limit 67%
The model gave 67% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordKilla
52% · 42 games59% · 18 games
SlarkXm
Slark
Snapfire
SnapfireEren
40% · 288 games53% · 74 games
Nature's ProphetSrf
Nature's Prophet
59% · 71 game
PuckEcho
Puck
51% · 111 games
TuskYds
Tusk
58% · 56 games
SilencerVictoria
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed35:11
Team Disillusion 35%Limit 65%
The model gave 65% on Limit — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKilla
45% · 184 games58% · 47 games
Chaos KnightXm
Chaos Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEren
48% · 100 games63% · 35 games
Storm SpiritEcho
Storm Spirit
51% · 116 games
Death ProphetSrf
Death Prophet
47% · 62 games
MiranaVictoria
Mirana
53% · 24 games
RikiYds
Riki
Game 3prediction correct8:35
Team Disillusion 35%Limit 65%
The model gave 65% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKilla
49% · 247 games48% · 78 games
UrsaXm
Ursa
Rubick
RubickEren
48% · 507 games54% · 137 games
PuckEcho
Puck
51% · 189 games
Death ProphetSrf
Death Prophet
53% · 322 games
TinyYds
Tiny
50% · 28 games
LichVictoria
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 74%
Series resultLimit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3