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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fart Studioswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
bgod · 5 games
60%

Fart Studios

Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Sonic · 7 games
29%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
654 picks · 422 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
570 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 439 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
465 picks · 534 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 385 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
334 picks · 513 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 219 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:36
The Cut 49%Fart Studios 51%
The model gave 51% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 46:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
53% · 281 game43% · 109 games
InvokeriAnnihilate
Invoker
Bristleback
BristlebackScourge McDuck
61% · 47 games50% · 62 games
Brewmastermonkeys-forever
Brewmaster
Zeus
Zeusbgod
46% · 90 games47% · 52 games
SlarkBSJ
Slark
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerChives
65% · 36 games39% · 183 games
HoodwinkNewsham
Hoodwink
Disruptor
Disruptorempyrean5
58% · 103 games48% · 151 game
Treant ProtectorJenkins
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct17:28
The Cut 47%Fart Studios 53%
The model gave 53% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
51% · 207 games54% · 101 game
MedusaBSJ
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
51% · 141 game41% · 98 games
InvokeriAnnihilate
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerChives
51% · 80 games52% · 316 games
Death Prophetmonkeys-forever
Death Prophet
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkbgod
45% · 234 games45% · 56 games
Earth SpiritNewsham
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
Disruptorempyrean5
60% · 83 games52% · 174 games
Treant ProtectorJenkins
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 55%
Series resultFart Studios 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2