DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 24 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 24 games
Marssignature
Force · 22 games
Snapfire
Tims · 21 game
Primal Beast
Force · 20 games
Tusk
Tims · 18 games
Chensignature
Skem · 17 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 18 games
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Phoenix
Varizh · 9 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
Muertasignature
dalul · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
519 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
417 picks · 397 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1094 bans
Puck
391 picks · 836 bans
Mars
384 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 34%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
OG 69%REKONIX 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by REKONIX in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
MuertaTraVins
Faceless VoidNatsumi
Sand KinginYourdreaM
PangolierYopaj
Night StalkerFbz
PhoenixSkem
Miranadalul
TuskTims
Treant ProtectorVarizh
Game 2prediction missed6:31
OG 70%REKONIX 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by REKONIX in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaNatsumi
TinyTraVins
Storm SpiritYopaj
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
SlardarFbz
Shadow DemonTims
Rubickdalul
Treant ProtectorSkem
PhoenixVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 85%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2