Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 12 games
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
Tusksignature
Frisk · 10 games
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
Rubicksignature
fy · 9 games
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
649 picks · 420 bans
Tusk
566 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
548 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
456 picks · 533 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 385 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 205 bans
Death Prophet
332 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
331 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 87%
Hero pool strength61% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
Vici Gaming 61%Ybb Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:27.
Game 2prediction missed25:34
Vici Gaming 61%Ybb Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 48:50.
Game 3prediction missed9:30
Vici Gaming 61%Ybb Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 34:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 61%
Series resultYbb Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3