Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlantiswin 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPAWN Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
SPAWN Team
Tusk
dalul · 21 game
Miranasignature
TraVins · 19 games
Rubick
TraVins · 15 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 13 games
Silencer
TraVins · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
Tiny
dalul · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
643 picks · 420 bans
Tusk
561 picks · 539 bans
Tiny
547 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
455 picks · 532 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 205 bans
Death Prophet
331 picks · 501 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:46
Atlantis 34%SPAWN Team 66%
The model gave 66% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 30:59.
Game 2prediction correct35:56
Atlantis 34%SPAWN Team 66%
The model gave 66% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 42:16.
Game 3prediction correct40:7
Atlantis 34%SPAWN Team 66%
The model gave 66% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 25:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 66%
Series resultAtlantis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3