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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Mystiqueloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Limitwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Mystique

Rubick
Rubick
Drink · 7 games
29%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
zone- · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Drink · 6 games
17%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nj · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Drink · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
rayy · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Lin · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
zone- · 3 games
67%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 14 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 8 games
100%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 6 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 5 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 5 games
40%
Lich
Lich
Victoria · 5 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
643 picks · 420 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
547 picks · 436 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
455 picks · 532 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 384 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 205 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 501 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
330 picks · 216 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 67%
Hero pool strength70% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:45
Team Mystique 29%Limit 71%
The model gave 71% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLin
52% · 208 games57% · 229 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomNj
46% · 163 games51% · 216 games
BatriderEcho
Batrider
Puck
Puckzone-
54% · 265 games45% · 291 game
MarsSrf
Mars
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerrayy
45% · 207 games55% · 373 games
TuskYds
Tusk
Rubick
RubickDrink
49% · 328 games45% · 62 games
LichVictoria
Lich
Game 2prediction missed26:19
Team Mystique 30%Limit 70%
The model gave 70% on Limit — the game was taken by Team Mystique in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLin
51% · 269 games53% · 191 game
Monkey KingXm
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawNj
44% · 183 games54% · 209 games
BeastmasterSrf
Beastmaster
Pangolier
Pangolierzone-
45% · 351 game53% · 162 games
Primal BeastEcho
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenrayy
42% · 232 games49% · 349 games
RubickYds
Rubick
Riki
RikiDrink
50% · 115 games60% · 239 games
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct13:30
Team Mystique 29%Limit 71%
The model gave 71% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLin
52% · 239 games51% · 162 games
UrsaXm
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritzone-
46% · 329 games56% · 191 game
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNj
50% · 171 game45% · 392 games
Death ProphetSrf
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickDrink
48% · 429 games51% · 455 games
TuskYds
Tusk
Undying
Undyingrayy
52% · 238 games50% · 206 games
SilencerVictoria
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 81%
Series resultLimit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3