Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Cloudwin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Big Brainloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Cloud
Tusk
mercy · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stariff · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Stariff · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dust · 3 games
Hoodwink
mercy · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
csj · 3 games
Marcioften banned
csj · 3 games
Big Brain
Death Prophetsignature
Molasses · 6 games
Tiny
blessing · 6 games
Snapfire
marblue · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Manic · 4 games
Clockwerk
Tz. · 3 games
Keeper of the Light
Molasses · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
blessing · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
640 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 434 bans
Treant Protector
452 picks · 530 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 205 bans
Death Prophet
329 picks · 499 bans
Clockwerk
328 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Big Brain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Team Cloud 40%Big Brain 60%
The model gave 60% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
MorphlingManic
Drow Ranger1ce limit
Keeper of the Lightblessing
Legion Commandercsj
BeastmasterMolasses
Hoodwinkmercy
Rubickmarblue
Treant ProtectorStariff
MiranaTz.
Game 2prediction missed35:22
Team Cloud 43%Big Brain 57%
The model gave 57% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Team Cloud in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracButterflyEffect
Lycanblessing
Nature's Prophet1ce limit
MarciManic
Legion Commandercsj
SnapfireMolasses
Tuskmercy
Primal Beastmarblue
SilencerStariff
Treant ProtectorTz.
Game 3prediction missed45:21
Team Cloud 41%Big Brain 59%
The model gave 59% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Team Cloud in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
Naga SirenManic
Pudge1ce limit
Outworld Destroyerblessing
Vipercsj
TuskMolasses
Tinymercy
Treant Protectormarblue
DisruptorStariff
MiranaTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 65%
Series resultTeam Cloud 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3