Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XERXIAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 9 games
Snapfire
Jhocam · 8 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
AlaCrity · 6 games
Tiny
Beebie · 6 games
Tusk
boombell · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 5 games
Miranaoften banned
LionaX · 5 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
640 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 434 bans
Treant Protector
452 picks · 530 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 205 bans
Death Prophet
329 picks · 499 bans
Clockwerk
328 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:40
UD Vessuwan 38%XERXIA 62%
The model gave 62% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 36:02.
Game 2prediction correct20:29
UD Vessuwan 38%XERXIA 62%
The model gave 62% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 48:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 62%
Series resultXERXIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2