?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO5
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:3
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Husky · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 6 games
83%
Viper
Vipersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 13 games
85%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
638 picks · 417 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 532 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 434 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
450 picks · 529 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 384 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 204 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
326 picks · 214 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 498 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:34
nouns 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 23:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYamSun
51% · 187 games51% · 136 games
Naga SirenArteezy
Naga Siren
Enigma
EnigmaMoo
58% · 232 games43% · 118 games
Queen of PainAbed
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
55% · 180 games44% · 304 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Undying
UndyingLelis
53% · 262 games49% · 558 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Tusk
TuskHusky
49% · 445 games46% · 190 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct10:33
nouns 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYamSun
50% · 100 games49% · 94 games
Dragon KnightArteezy
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomMoo
46% · 233 games48% · 125 games
Primal BeastAbed
Primal Beast
Zeus
ZeusGunnar
49% · 198 games51% · 210 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Undying
UndyingLelis
52% · 260 games56% · 101 game
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerHusky
49% · 161 game51% · 422 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct2:23
nouns 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaGunnar
43% · 114 games54% · 270 games
LinaArteezy
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterMoo
48% · 98 games40% · 73 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYamSun
52% · 161 game53% · 126 games
Primal BeastAbed
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickLelis
54% · 461 game45% · 381 game
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingHusky
54% · 273 games54% · 257 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 58%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3