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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
the goal of all life is deathloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 14 games
36%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 12 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 11 games
18%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%

the goal of all life is death

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
641 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 408 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
415 picks · 389 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1090 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 830 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 566 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% the goal of all life is death
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:35
Roar Gaming 57%the goal of all life is death 43%
The model gave 57% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 59:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
46% · 163 games48% · 302 games
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Muerta
Muertaukiyo
50% · 115 games56% · 99 games
LifestealerSummer
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal Beast生死
54% · 101 game52% · 147 games
Underlorddolem
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCatYou
51% · 206 games40% · 96 games
LionMarlin
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLOyd
58% · 59 games
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Roar Gaming 56%the goal of all life is death 44%
The model gave 56% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeukiyo
53% · 267 games50% · 540 games
TinySummer
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 325 games46% · 406 games
Queen of PainNight
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batrider生死
57% · 299 games48% · 384 games
Slardardolem
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroLOyd
50% · 440 games51% · 59 games
Crystal MaidenMarlin
Crystal Maiden
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCatYou
45% · 58 games
Game 3prediction correct40:17
Roar Gaming 57%the goal of all life is death 43%
The model gave 57% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
40% · 146 games45% · 130 games
Timbersawdolem
Timbersaw
Underlord
Underlord生死
51% · 131 game56% · 205 games
Ember SpiritNight
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLOyd
54% · 82 games46% · 104 games
DoomSummer
Doom
Alchemist
Alchemistukiyo
55% · 28 games56% · 21 game
IoMarlin
Io
Lion
LionCatYou
54% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 66%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3