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BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 13 games
85%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 35 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
dnm · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
albinozebra · 13 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 13 games
77%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 12 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 12 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
dnm · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
636 picks · 415 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 434 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
447 picks · 527 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
369 picks · 204 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
326 picks · 213 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Shopify Rebellion 58%5RATFORCESTAFF 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
53% · 246 games53% · 183 games
Templar Assassindnm
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorArteezy
49% · 166 games48% · 332 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
49% · 324 games44% · 127 games
Primal BeastSpeeed
Primal Beast
Undying
UndyingFly
54% · 252 games52% · 277 games
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Io
IoCr1t-
45% · 119 games51% · 188 games
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct37:7
Shopify Rebellion 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArteezy
48% · 80 games48% · 303 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherSabeRLight-
54% · 185 games49% · 84 games
Pudgednm
Pudge
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
59% · 141 game44% · 42 games
UnderlordSpeeed
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 255 games50% · 304 games
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
54% · 267 games47% · 195 games
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 67%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2