Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dreamersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Runes
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Miranaoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
635 picks · 415 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
542 picks · 434 bans
Treant Protector
443 picks · 526 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 204 bans
Clockwerk
326 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Dreamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:36
No Runes 46%Dreamers 54%
The model gave 54% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 37:06.
Game 2prediction correct43:8
No Runes 46%Dreamers 54%
The model gave 54% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 32:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteDreamers · 54%
Series resultNo Runes 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2