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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Mystiqueloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 9 games
89%
Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 8 games
88%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
88%

Team Mystique

Rubick
Rubick
Drink · 7 games
29%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
zone- · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nj · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Drink · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
rayy · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nj · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
zone- · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Drink · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
633 picks · 411 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 432 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
441 picks · 523 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 203 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
324 picks · 213 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
323 picks · 489 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 33%
Hero pool strength65% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:6
Vici Gaming 80%Team Mystique 20%
The model gave 80% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
53% · 138 games58% · 39 games
BristlebackLin
Bristleback
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSetsu
57% · 3 games49% · 256 games
Linazone-
Lina
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
53% · 153 games48% · 211 games
MarsNj
Mars
Rubick
Rubickfy
50% · 357 games44% · 344 games
SnapfireDrink
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskYang
50% · 263 games46% · 64 games
Legion Commanderrayy
Legion Commander
Game 2prediction correct36:12
Vici Gaming 78%Team Mystique 22%
The model gave 78% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenpoyoyo
48% · 75 games51% · 184 games
Nature's ProphetLin
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSetsu
48% · 373 games50% · 122 games
TimbersawNj
Timbersaw
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
53% · 150 games50% · 168 games
Leshraczone-
Leshrac
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
52% · 332 games47% · 294 games
TuskDrink
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixYang
50% · 169 games49% · 331 game
Snapfirerayy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 92%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2