Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RISE Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 11 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 9 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
633 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
554 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
541 picks · 432 bans
Treant Protector
441 picks · 523 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 203 bans
Clockwerk
324 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 489 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 44%
Hero pool strength65% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Hydra 79%RISE Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:15.
Game 2prediction correct24:14
Hydra 79%RISE Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 79%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2