Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Cloudwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Rubick
Helios · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Fonte · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
guoguo · 3 games
Clockwerk
guoguo · 2 games
Earthshaker
CatYou · 2 games
Team Cloud
Tusk
mercy · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stariff · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Stariff · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dust · 3 games
Marcioften banned
csj · 3 games
Zeusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Dazzle
QYQX · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
630 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
541 picks · 432 bans
Treant Protector
439 picks · 521 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 202 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
322 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 22%
Hero pool strength59% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:44
LBZS 66%Team Cloud 34%
The model gave 66% on LBZS — the game was taken by Team Cloud in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenFonte
Nature's Prophet1ce limit
MarsShanks
TuskButterflyEffect
TidehunterTzy
Legion Commandercsj
RubickHelios
Treant ProtectorStariff
Lichguoguo
Hoodwinkmercy
Game 2prediction missed44:62
LBZS 66%Team Cloud 34%
The model gave 66% on LBZS — the game was taken by Team Cloud in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendFonte
SniperButterflyEffect
Void SpiritShanks
Troll Warlord1ce limit
RubickHelios
Vipercsj
MarciTzy
Tuskmercy
Clockwerkguoguo
SnapfireStariff
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 76%
Series resultTeam Cloud 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2