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BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Viper
Vipersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
80%

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 13 games
85%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 11 games
82%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
625 picks · 408 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
548 picks · 528 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
539 picks · 431 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
433 picks · 518 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 382 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 200 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 483 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 212 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 77%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:11
nouns 40%Shopify Rebellion 60%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracGunnar
56% · 165 games56% · 162 games
RazorArteezy
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaYamSun
44% · 104 games50% · 148 games
Shadow FiendAbed
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomMoo
44% · 130 games53% · 205 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
43% · 237 games53% · 72 games
RikiCr1t-
Riki
Undying
UndyingHusky
46% · 174 games53% · 223 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed22:19
nouns 42%Shopify Rebellion 58%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 47:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGunnar
46% · 181 game53% · 256 games
LinaArteezy
Lina
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYamSun
44% · 236 games46% · 378 games
SnapfireAbed
Snapfire
Doom
DoomMoo
45% · 200 games50% · 424 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickLelis
52% · 536 games52% · 288 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingHusky
53% · 288 games60% · 95 games
RikiCr1t-
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 64%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2