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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 16 games
69%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 13 games
77%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 11 games
91%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 9 games
89%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
woMy · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
621 picks · 402 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 528 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 433 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
428 picks · 515 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 374 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 199 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 210 bans
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
317 picks · 474 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Polaris Esports 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 1:11:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
45% · 152 games48% · 136 games
Keeper of the LightYowe
Keeper of the Light
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAkashi
50% · 119 games54% · 137 games
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBok
52% · 325 games48% · 110 games
Broodmotherdb-
Broodmother
Riki
RikiJing
55% · 73 games49% · 173 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Lich
Lichcml
45% · 55 games53% · 168 games
Treant ProtectorVarizh
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed14:41
Polaris Esports 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAkashi
50% · 185 games53% · 208 games
Templar AssassinYowe
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
47% · 358 games50% · 115 games
PudgeinYourdreaM
Pudge
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBok
50% · 68 games54% · 115 games
Tidehunterdb-
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireJing
47% · 375 games51% · 722 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
46% · 322 games53% · 148 games
PugnaVarizh
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed22:33
Polaris Esports 55%Army Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBok
50% · 197 games39% · 170 games
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
Terrorblade
Lifestealer
LifestealerAkashi
56% · 122 games53% · 43 games
Pugnadb-
Pugna
Leshrac
LeshracMac
60% · 196 games51% · 91 game
KunkkaYowe
Kunkka
Silencer
Silencercml
46% · 157 games47% · 565 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Marci
MarciJing
52% · 397 games48% · 200 games
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 57%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3